Refinitiv Commodities Research has raised its forecast for Australia’s 2022/23 wheat production by 4% to 37.5 million tons (+1.2 compared to 2021/22).
– As of 27.10.2022, 149.7 million tons of grain bench weight (+30.7 compared to the previous season) were harvested in Russia, including 104.6 million tons of wheat (77.8) and 24.3 million tons of barley (18.7). The corn harvested so far reaches 5.9 million tons (10) with an average yield of 5.55 tons/hectare (5.32).
– According to IKAR’s forecast, 14 million tons of wheat will be exported from Russia over the period of 01.07 – 30.10.2022. Russia’s total grain export potential for the new season is 63 million tons.
– According to an estimate by the TPP of Russia, the grain production in the country will be 100 million tons in 2023, which is far below the level of about 150 million tons in 2022. The decline is due to the small areas sown with winter crops now. It seems that the estimate is quite extreme, because other analysts do not share it as realistic.
– During the week starting on 02.11.2022, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 2,923.2 rubles/ton (3,028 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 2,414.3 rubles/ton (2,524.2) and the export tax on corn will be 1,637.3 rubles/ton (1,909.1).
– As of 27.10.2022, 7.7 million hectares of grain crops (70%) were harvested in Ukraine, 30.9 million tons of grain were harvested with an average yield of 3.99 tons/hectare. 832,000 hectares (20%) were harvested with corn, 4.5 million tons of corn were harvested with an average yield of 5.37 tons/hectare. Sunseed was harvested on 3.7 million hectares (80%), 8.2 million tons of sunseed were harvested with an average yield of 2.19 tons/hectare.
– According to the latest forecast of the European Commission, the corn production in the EU will reach 54.9 million tons in 2022 (55.5 in the previous estimate), which will be the lowest level for the last 15 years. At the beginning of the season, estimates for the corn production were 71.7 million tons. EU corn imports in 2022/23 are expected at 22 million tons (+1 million tons compared to the previous estimate), which is the highest level for the last 4 years. The EU soft wheat production is estimated at 127.2 million tons (+0.2), and the estimate for soft wheat exports remained unchanged at 36 million tons.
– According to FrabceAgriMer data, as of 24.10.2022 in France, 63% of the areas planned for winter wheat have been sown (+17% for the week and 58% a year earlier). 7% of the areas are sown with durum wheat (+6% and -6%). Corn has been harvested on 96% of the areas (+4% and 51%).
– Refinitiv Commodities Research predicts a 2023/24 rapeseed production in the EU of 19.7 million tons on 5.9 million hectares. The soft wheat production is projected at 135.2 million tons, and durum wheat production is estimated at 8.5 million tons.
– On Friday, Chicago commodity funds were net sellers of 2,500 contracts of corn and 1,000 contracts of wheat and neutral on soybeans.
– According to Oil World’s September forecast, sunseed oil stocks in Turkey rose to 330,000 – 350,000 tons after increased imports. Lower prices and higher oil supply led to imports of 125,000 tons during the month (32,000 a year earlier). Deliveries were 104,000 tons from Ukraine, 15,000 tons from Russia and 4,000 tons from Bulgaria. In 2021/22, Turkey’s oil imports were 1.07 million tons (+350,000 compared to 2020/21).
– In the week of October 13-19, farmers in Argentina sold 926,300 tons of corn (839,300 a week earlier), 93,400 tons of wheat (65,600), 164,900 tons of soybeans (55,000), 27,700 tons of sunseed (9,300). Total sales of the 2021/22 corn crop reached 40.9 million tons (42.9 a year earlier). Total sales of the 2021/22 wheat crop amount to 22.4 million tons (16.8). Total sales of the 2021/22 soybean crop reach 31 million tons (32.7) and total sales of the 2021/22 sunseed crop are 2.7 million tons (2.6).
– Refinitiv Commodities Research has raised its forecast for Australia’s 2022/23 wheat production by 4% to 37.5 million tons (+1.2 compared to 2021/22). The canola production will be 6.8 million tons (+5% compared to the previous estimate and unchanged from 2021/22).
