In August, India is expected to experience the lowest rainfall levels since 1901 (when observations began).
During the period of 01.07 – 16.08.2023, Russia exported 9.1 million tons of grain, including 6.8 million tons of wheat (3.85% higher than the same period a year earlier). Saudi Arabia purchased the most grain, totaling 1.25 million tons, while Turkey bought the most wheat with 850,000 tons.
In the week of August 14 – 20, 329,600 tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, significantly below the average weekly level for the season. The previous week’s export was 575,800 tons. Of the exported grain, 299,600 tons were wheat and 30,000 tons were barley. Turkey was the largest buyer of wheat with 66,000 tons, followed by Indonesia with 60,500 tons, Egypt with 56,300 tons, Bangladesh with 54,700 tons, and others. All the barley was destined for Libya.
Between July 01 and August 21, 2023, Ukraine exported 3.607 million tons of grain (3.327 million tons a year earlier), including 1.333 million tons in August (1.626 million tons). The exports consisted of 1.467 million tons of wheat (646,000 tons), 422,000 tons of barley (127,000 tons), and 1.711 million tons of corn (558,000 tons).
The European Commission is considering options to subsidize grain exports from Ukraine, with an expected subsidy of around 30 euros per ton. Romania is aiming to secure 60% of Ukraine’s grain exports. In the first 7 months of the year, 8.1 million tons of Ukrainian grain were exported from Constanta, compared to 8.6 million tons in 2022.
According to Conab data, authorities in Brazil have started purchasing up to 500,000 tons of corn to replenish the state reserves, with an initial batch of 30,600 tons. Farmers have currently declared sales of 388,700 tons of corn.
During the period of August 1 – 13, Canada exported 0.7 million tons of soft wheat (+15% compared to the previous year), 100,000 tons of hard wheat (-3%), 100,000 tons of corn (+85%), and 200,000 tons of canola.
In August, India is expected to experience the lowest rainfall levels since 1901 (when observations began), which will decrease summer yields of rice, soybeans, and other crops. Monsoons in India typically contribute around 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. Meanwhile, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines have requested India to resume rice exports. India holds a 40% share of the global rice export market. Indonesia is compelled to increase wheat imports due to drought. Additionally, India is negotiating with Russia for the delivery of up to 9 million tons of wheat, seeking a price concession, although it is unlikely to happen. North African countries will also increase wheat imports due to drought conditions in the region. These losses are already factual, not just forecasts.
Libya has rejected 26,300 tons of Russian wheat due to increased insect infestation.
On August 23, 2023, Libya will hold a tender to purchase 55,000 – 60,000 tons of yellow feed corn with delivery in October.
