According to the forecast by Rusagrotrans, Russia is expected to export 4.7 – 4.9 million tons of wheat in August 2023 (2.23 million tons more than the previous year).
According to the forecast by Rusagrotrans, Russia is expected to export 4.7 – 4.9 million tons of wheat in August 2023 (2.23 million tons more than the previous year). In July, the export was 4.1 million tons, which was a record for the month (4 in 2018). In July, a historical record was also set for barley exports, reaching almost 1.1 million tons.
During the week of August 9 – 15, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 2,918.1 rubles/ton (2,681.8 previously), barley will be duty-free again, and corn will have an export duty of 1,759.7 rubles/ton (1,596.7).
From July 1 to August 4, 2023, Ukraine exported 2.399 million tons of grain, including 121,000 tons in August. The previous year’s exports were 1.867 million tons, including 254,000 tons in August. Wheat exports reached 880,000 tons (56,000 in August), barley exports were 311,000 tons (15,000), and corn exports were 1.203 million tons (50,000).
According to the forecast by the Grain Union of Kazakhstan for 2023/24, the wheat production in the country will be 14.5 million tons (compared to the average of 13.5 million tons in previous years), with lower grain quality than in recent years. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 5.5 million tons, and the export of the new crop is projected to be 9 million tons. With an initial stock of 2.7 million tons, the export supply will be around 12 million tons, which puts a significant strain on the country’s logistics, given that the monthly potential for exports is 1 – 1.2 million tons.
As of July 31, 2023, 87% of soft wheat crops in France have been harvested (+4% compared to the previous week, 99% compared to the previous year, and 89% on average for the last five years). 81% of the corn crops are in good and excellent condition (81% the previous week and 62% the previous year).
Refinitiv Commodities Research has reduced its forecast for the 2023/24 soft wheat production in the EU by 2.3 million tons to 128 million tons, and for hard wheat production by 0.5 million tons to 7.6 million tons. The corn production is expected to be 64.1 million tons (-0.8), and the rapeseed production is projected at 19.6 million tons (-0.6).
StoneX predicts a corn production of 388 million tons in the United States in 2023/24 with an average yield of 11.9 tons per hectare. The soybean production is expected to reach 113.6 million tons (-2.8 compared to 2022/23) with an average yield of 3.4 tons per hectare.
As of August 2, 2023, 98.5% of the planned wheat areas for the 2023/24 production have been sown in Argentina, while 72.6% of the corn has been harvested, and the forecast for the corn production remains unchanged at 34 million tons.
According to Oil World data, during the fourth quarter of 2022/23 (May – July), Egypt imported 0.5 million tons of soybeans (1.4 million tons more than the previous year). In the first three quarters of the season, imports were 2.02 million tons (4.71).
Algeria has purchased 40,000 tons of corn from either Brazil or Argentina at a price of 239 – 240 USD/ton C&F with delivery in August.
