IKAR predicts that the 2023/24 production of oilseeds in Russia will reach 27.5 million tons (compared to 29.1 million tons in 2022/23).
According to data from Rusagrotrans, Russia’s wheat exports are expected to reach 4.1 – 4.2 million tons in July 2023 (surpassing the previous record of 4 million tons in July 2018).
IKAR predicts that the 2023/24 production of oilseeds in Russia will be 27.5 million tons (compared to 29.1 million tons in 2022/23). The sunseed production is expected to reach 15.7 million tons (down from 16.4 million tons), with initial stocks at 1.5 million tons, processing at 16.1 million tons, and ending stocks at 0.4 million tons. Sunseed oil production will reach 7 million tons (up from 6.4 million tons), with record exports of 4.7 million tons (compared to 4 million tons). The soybean production will reach 5.9 million tons (down from 6 million tons), and rapeseed production is estimated at 4.17 million tons (compared to 4.5 million tons).
During the week of 26.07 – 01.08.2023, the export tax on Russian wheat will be 2,712.1 rubles per ton (compared to 3,022.6 in the previous week), barley will be duty-free and unchanged, and the export tax on corn will be 1,598.6 rubles per ton (compared to 1,923.2).
As of 20.07.2023, in Ukraine, 1.49 million hectares of grain crops have been harvested (14% of the total area), yielding 5.888 million tons of grain with an average yield of 3.94 tons per hectare. Wheat has been harvested on 830,960 hectares (18%), producing 3.42 million tons of wheat with an average yield of 4.12 tons per hectare. Barley has been harvested on 577,200 hectares (40%) yielded 2.253 million tons of grain with an average yield of 3.9 tons per hectare. Rapeseed has been harvested from 41% of the total areas, yielding 1.39 million tons of seeds with an average yield of 2.47 tons per hectare.
According to Fediol data in June, soybean processing in the EU was 1.11 million tons (down 14% from May – 1.28 million tons, and 1.19 million tons in June 2022). Rapeseed processing was 1.26 million tons (down 18% and up 22%), and sunseed processing was 517,000 tons (up 2% and 24%). During the first half of 2023, the total processing of oilseeds in the EU was 19.36 million tons (compared to 18.64 million tons).
As of 17.07.2023, in France, 58% of the soft wheat areas have been harvested (up 25% from the previous week and 79% higher than the previous year). 82% of corn crops are in good to excellent condition (compared to 75% in the previous year).
StoneX forecasts that the wheat production in Brazil will be 11.45 million tons in 2023/24, surpassing the level of 2022/23. The country is nearing self-sufficiency as its annual consumption is 13.5 million tons.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, recent rainfall in Argentina has increased soil moisture to normal levels in 71% of the areas planted with wheat. As of 20.07.2023, 91.2% of the planned wheat areas in Argentina have been sown. 66.1% of the corn areas have been harvested at an average yield of 4.97 tons per hectare.
Refinitiv Commodities Research has raised its forecast for China’s corn production in 2023/24 by 1.4 million tons to 279.6 million tons, which is 2.4 million tons more than in 2022/23.
GAPKI’s forecast for palm oil production in Indonesia in 2023 predicts it will reach 52 million tons (up 1% from 2022). Domestic consumption is expected to be 25.1 million tons (up 19%), while exports are estimated at 27 million tons (down 12%).
In their July report, analysts from IGC predict a global sunseed production of 56.9 million tons in 2023/24 (up 2.8% from 2022/23 and 0.7% from 2021/22). The EU is expected to produce 10.5 million tons (up 14%), Ukraine- 15.3 million tons (up 9%), and Russia- 16.4 million tons (same as the previous year).
In their July report, IGC analysts forecast a total global grain production of 2.297 million tons in 2023/24 (up 2% from 2022/23). The corn production is projected to reach 1.22 million tons (an increase of 64 million tons), while wheat production is expected to decrease by 19 million tons, and barley production by 9 million tons. Soybean production is predicted to decline by 2 million tons.
