During the period from September to December 2023, soybean imports to China from Brazil may increase due to high prices of soyoil in the US, and consequently, the prices of soybeans.
In June, Ukraine exported 476,000 tons of sunseed oil (+5% compared to May), including 256,000 tons to the EU (+37%). During the first 10 months of the season, exports to the EU reached 1.95 million tons (+32%), accounting for a 42% share of the total exports.
During the period from July 1 to July 17, Ukraine’s grain exports reached 1.265 million tons (1.082 million tons during the same period in July 2022), including 403,000 tons of wheat (222,000 tons), 132,000 tons of barley (88,000 tons), and 728,000 tons of corn (766,000 tons).
According to data from FranceAgriMer as of July 10, 2023, 33% of the soft wheat areas in France have been harvested (+23% for the week and 45% higher than the previous year). Hard wheat has been harvested on 65% of the areas (+39% and 78%).
DRV forecasts a wheat production in Germany of 21.8 million tons in 2023 (-3% compared to 2022), corn production of 3.7 million tons (-3%), spring barley production of 1.6 million tons (-17%), and winter barley production of 9.1 million tons (-1%).
According to data from the Grain Exchange in Buenos Aires as of July 12, 2023, corn harvesting in Argentina has been completed on 58% of the areas (+6% for the week and an average of 70% over the past five years). So far, 19.8 million tons of corn have been harvested with an average yield of 4.9 tons per hectare.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s wheat production in 2023 is expected to reach 134.53 million tons (-0.9% compared to 2022), marking a decline for the first time in the past seven years. There is no significant change expected in wheat stocks.
From September to December 2023, soybean imports to China from Brazil may increase due to high soyoil prices in the US, which in turn affects soybeans. Currently, Brazilian soybeans, under C&F conditions, have a price of 576 USD/ton in China, while American soybeans are over 580 USD/ton. Buyers are usually willing to pay a price premium of +12 to +15 USD/ton for Brazilian soybeans due to their better quality. In June, China imported 10.27 million tons of soybeans (+24.5% compared to June 2022), mainly purchased from Brazil.
According to data from SEA, India imported 1.3 million tons of vegetable oils in June (+24% compared to May), including 683,130 tons of palm oil (+56%), 437,660 tons of soybean oil (+37%), and 190,790 tons of sunseed oil (-35%).
Bangladesh is looking to purchase 50,000 tons of milling wheat of any origin. In the previous tender, 500,000 tons of Russian wheat were purchased.
