The Russian Grain Union predicts a 2023/24 grain production in Russia of 130-140 million tons with exports of 55 million tons. A decrease in the average yield of wheat by about 0.1 ton/hectare is noted.
– According to Ruasagrotrans data, wheat exports from Russia reached a record 3.84 million tons in June (3.55 in the previous estimate and 2.77 the previous record of 2018). In July, exports will be 3.7 million tons (record from 2018 – 4 million tons).
– IKAR has raised its forecast for the export of wheat harvest 2022/23 from Russia to 47.7 million tons (47.5), total grain exports are projected at 60 million tons (59.2). The ending grain stocks in the country will be 22 million tons (11.6 in 2021/22), including ending wheat stocks of 16.3 million tons (9.2). The 2023/24 grain production is estimated at the level of 132 million tons, including wheat production of 86 million tons. Pessimistic scenario for the grain production indicates 118 million tons, including wheat production of 78 million tons.
– IKAR expects a 2023/24 soybean production in Russia of 6.2 million tons (6 in 2022/23), sunseed production is expected at 15.7 million tons (16.4) and rapeseed production is estimated at 4.2 – 4.4 million tons (4.5).
– In June, 1.579 million tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, including wheat exports of 1.484 million tons, barley exprots of 70,000 tons and peas exports of 26,000 tons. 281,000 tons of wheat have been sent to Turkey, 222,000 tons to Egypt , 161,000 tons to Bangladesh , 133,000 tons to Saudi Arabia , 121,000 tons to Kenya and 113,000 tons to Indonesia. Barley was only sent to Saudi Arabia and peas were only sent to Turkey. In May 2023, grain exports were 1,886 million tons.
– During the period July 01 – 03, 2023, which is the beginning of the season, 9,000 tons of wheat and 35,000 tons of corn were exported from Ukraine.
– Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for the EU rapeseed production by 0.6 million tonnes to 19.8 million tons (20.4 in the previous estimate and -0.4 compared to 2023/24).
– The European Commission has lowered its forecast for the soft wheat production in the EU in 2023/24 compared to the previous estimate by 2.7 million tons to 128.9 million tons (+3.2 compared to 2022/23). Exports will reach 32 million tons (+1), domestic consumption is expected at 101 million tons (+1.5 and +2.1). Ending stocks of common wheat in the EU will be 20.5 million tons, which is 3.4 million tons less than the previous estimate and the level of 2022/23. Barley production is projected to reach 49.7 million tons (-2.4 and -1.8), barley consumption is estimated at 41 million tons (-1 and -4.1), exports are expected at 10.2 million tons (+0.7 compared to 2022/23) and ending barley stocks are projected at 6.1 million tons (-2 and no change).
– According to data from FranceAgriMer, as of 26.06.2023, 81% of soft wheat crops in France was in good and excellent condition (83% a week earlier and 64% a year earlier), as well as 69% of durum wheat crops (77% and 56%). 1% of the wheat areas have been harvested (5%). 86% of the corn crops are in good and excellent condition (+1 and 83%).
– Iran has bought 120,000 tons of soymeal from Brazil or Argentina at 575.58 USD/ton C&F and July-August delivery.
– Algeria has announced a tender for at least 50,000 tons of durum with delivery within August-September.
