MARS forecasts that the wheat production in Russia for 2023 will reach 86.7 million tons (compared to 103.9 million tons in 2022). Barley production is projected at 20.4 million tons (22.9), and corn production is estimated at 15.2 million tons (15.1).
• As of June 26, 2023, 1.5 million tons of grain have been harvested in Russia (0.87 million tons in 2022). The average wheat yield is 4.45 tons per hectare, indicating the early stage of the campaign.
• UkrAgroConsult reports official results for the 2022 production in Ukraine. The total grain priduction reaches 53.9 million tons (-37% compared to 2021), including wheat production of 20.7 million tons (-35%), barley production of 5.6 million tons (-40%), and corn production of 26.2 million tons (-37%). From the beginning of the season, wheat exports from Ukraine amount to 15.5 million tons (-17%), barley exports reahc 2.65 million tons (-54%), and corn exports totalled 24.1 million tons (+14%). Turkey is the largest importer of Ukrainian products, followed by Romania.
• MARS forecasts the wheat production in Kazakhstan to reach 14.3 million tons (+13% compared to 2022 and +7% compared to the five-year average).
• Poland organizes a meeting between the five Central European countries – Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia – with representatives from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. The goal of the meeting is to discuss issues related to the export of Ukrainian products.
• According to USDA data as of June 25, 2023, 50% of corn crops in the United States are in good and excellent condition (-5% for the week), the lowest level since 1988. 51% of the Soybean are in good and excellent condition (-3% and 65% higher than the previous year), as well as 50% of the spring wheat crops (-1%), and 40% of the winter wheat crops (+2% and +10%). Harvesting of winter wheat has been completed on 24% of the areas.
• Yesterday, commodity funds in Chicago were net sellers of 4,500 wheat contracts and net buyers of 1,500 corn contracts and 9,500 soybean contracts.
• According to AgRural data as of June 25, 2023, 9.3% of the second corn crop area has been harvested in Brazil (+4.6% for the week), including 20.3% of the areas in Mato Grosso. The second corn production is expected to reach 97.9 million tons, with a total of 127.4 million tons.
• Due to the weak wheat production in India, estimated at 101-103 million tons by some analysts, significant imports are forecasted for 2023/24.
• The National Grain Council in Turkey estimates the wheat production in the country at 21.5 million tons (revised from 20.75 million tons in the previous forecast), and the total grain production will reach 39.5 million tons (+2.1).
• Algeria has purchased corn from Argentina at a price of 270 USD/ton C&F with delivery scheduled for July-August.
• Morocco will subsidize the import of 2.5 million tons of milling wheat from July 1 to September 30, 2023, considering the weak milling wheat production in the country.
• As of June 25, 2023, the authorities in Iraq have purchased 4.5 million tons of wheat from the 2023/24 crop from local farmers.
