The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for the 2022/23 corn production in Argentina by 3 million tons to 32 million tons (51.1 in 2021/22), which would be the lowest result for the last 15 years.
– According to experts, grain exports from Russia in 2022/23 will reach 58.5 million tons (56 in previous estimates), including wheat exports of 48 million tons (46).
– In March, 292,000 tons of sunseed oil were exported from Russia (+48% compared to February and +12% compared to March 2022). The biggest customers were China with 106,000 tons, Turkey with 43,000 tons, Egypt with 39,000 tons and India with 31,000 tons.
– From the beginning of the season to 14.04.2023, 39,503 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine (45,263 a year earlier), incl. in April 1.527 million tons (320,000). 13,572 million tons of wheat (574,000), 2,326 million tons of barley (50,000), 23,282 million tons of corn (900,000) have been exported.
– After a one-day suspension on 12/04/2023, inspections of ships along the Ukrainian grain corridor have been resumed.
– As of April 1, 2023, grain stocks in Kazakhstan were 11.94 million tons (15,775 at the beginning of the year), including wheat stocks of 9.8 million tons.
– According to a forecast by Refinitiv Commodities Research, corn areas in the EU will be 8.7 million hectares in 2023/24 (-0.2 compared to 2022/23), and corn production is expected to reach 64.4 million tons (+12.3).
– Stratégie Grains has lowered its forecast for the 2023/24 wheat production in the EU by 0.6 million tons to 128.9 million tons (-3.7 compared to 2021/22). The durum wheat production will be 7.7 million tons (-0.1 and +0.6). Barley production is estimated at 51.6 million tons (-0.5 and +0.4), and corn production is expected at 62.7 million tons (-0.7 and 52).
– EU sunseed oil prices are falling due to large sunseed stocks. According to Oil World data, as of 13/04/2023, sunseed oil FOB Rotterdam was 1,030 USD/ton. At the end of January, sunseed stocks in the EU were 6.27 million tons (5.96 a year earlier) with imports of Ukrainian sunseed in the EU of 1.33 million tons (0.27). The EU sunseed production fell to 9.35 million tons in the current season, but processing increased to 5 million tons (4.57 in the August-January period). For the whole of 2022/23, EU sunseed imports are expected to reach 2.28 million tons (1.47), processing is projected at 9.78 million tonnes (9.42) and sunseed stocks are estimated at 1.65 million tonnes (1.5).
– FranceAgriMer again lowered its forecast for soft wheat exports from France in 2022/23 to 16.813 million tons (-0.141 compared to the previous estimate). 10.4 million tons of wheat will be sent to EU countries (-0.05). Ending stocks of wheat will reach 2.614 million tons (+0.111 and 2.78 in 2021/22). In 2021/822, France’s exports were 16.79 million tons.
– According to FranceAgriMer data, as of 10/04/2023 in France, 12% of the areas planned for corn were sown (+10% for the week and 8% a year earlier). Corn areas may be reduced at the expense of sunseed with an expected summer drought. 94% of soft wheat crops are in good and excellent condition (92% a year earlier), as well as 91% of durum wheat crops (84%), 92% of winter barley crops (87%) and 95% of spring barley crops (92%).
– In their April forecast, Conab analysts raised their forecast for the 2022/23 soybean production in Brazil by 2.2 million tons to 153.6 million tons. As of 04/08/2023, the harvesting campaign was carried out on 78% of the areas (85% a year earlier). The corn production is projected at 124.9 million tons (+0.2), including first corn production of 27.2 million tons (+0.5) and second corn production of 95.3 million tons (-0.3). Corn exports will reach 48 million tons and ending corn stocks will be 7.5 million tons (+0.2 and 8.1).
– Abiove has raised its forecast for soybean exports from Brazil in the current season by 1.4 million tons to 93.7 million tons. The export of soymeal will be 21 million tons (20.7).
– In March, soybean imports into China were 6.85 million tons (+7.9% compared to March 2022 and 7.04 in February). Over the period of January – March, the import was 23 million tons (+13.5%), which is a new record for the country.
– The government of Egypt again raises domestic prices for buying wheat from farmers by 20% to 323.9 USD/ton. Purchases from local farmers are planned in the amount of 4 million tons (4.2 a year earlier).
– According to preliminary data, Algeria has bought 400,000 – 450,000 tons of durum wheat most likely from Mexico and Canada at prices of 412 – 430 USD/ton C&F and delivery within May – June.
