Russian wheat export prices with February delivery fell by 3 USD/ton last week to 302 USD/ton due to strong supply.
– Russian wheat export prices with February delivery fell by 3 USD/ton last week to 302 USD/ton due to strong supply. However, we also saw lower prices at the tender in Egypt, i.e. at the end of the week, prices fell below 300 USD/ton. At the Egyptian tender 535,000 tons of Russian wheat have been purchased at FOB prices around 297 USD/ton. Jordan has bought 60,000 tons of wheat at a price of 336.5 USD/ton C&F, which means Russian prices FOB Novorossiysk are below 300 USD/ton. For barley, Russian FOB prices are around 265 USD/ton. In January, a record 4.17 million tons of wheat were exported from Russia. For February, exports of 3.97 million tons are expected (2.36 in February 2021).
– In the week starting on 08.02.2023, the export duty on Russian wheat will be 4,496.6 rubles/ton (4,365.3 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 3,175.2 rubles/ton (3,174.3) and the export tax on corn will be 1,505.7 rubles/ton (1,186.2).
– As of 02.02.2023, 91% of corn crops were harvested in Ukraine and 25.9 million tons of grain were harvested with an average yield of 6.72 tons/hectare. A week earlier, 25.2 million tons of grain were harvested.
– From the beginning of 2022/23 to 02/03/2023, 27.456 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine (39.12 a year earlier), including 480,000 tons in February (647,000). 9.843 million tons of wheat (107,000 tons February), 1.827 million tons of barley (9,000) and 15.68 million tons of corn (362,000) were exported.
– In the week of January 20 – 26, US corn export sales were 1.76 million tons (combined for 2022/23 and 2023/24) against an expected 0.7 – 1.2 million tons. Wheat sales were 168,900 tons and soybean sales reached 928,000 tons.
– On Thursday, Chicago commodity funds were net buyers of 6,000 soybean contracts and 500 wheat contracts and net sellers of 4,500 corn contracts.
– In the period August – December, the supply of grain and oil crops from Canada to China was 6.5 million tons, and 1.27 million tons to Japan. Shipments to China included 1.74 million tons of wheat, 1.75 million tons of canola, 1.44 million tons of barley and others.
– Abiove forecasts a 2022/23 soybean production in Brazil of 152.6 million tons (+27.1% compared to 2021/22). Exports will be 92 million tons (+13.1), and domestic processing is projected at 52.5 million tons (+3.1).
– From 01.02.2023, Brazil introduces an import tax on ethanol of 18%. From 22.03.2022, the import tax on the product was 0% in order to limit inflation. In 2022, 312 million liters of ethanol were delivered to the country, with the share of the USA being 65%. Ethanol prices in Brazil are expected to rise, and from there to stop cheap supplies to the EU.
– According to USDA data from July 2022, China’s feed corn consumption is increasing due to expensive wheat and sorghum, as well as a good production in the country. In 2022/23, corn production in China reached 277.2 million tons (+4.6 compared to 2021/22). China has bought 3.7 million tons of US corn with delivery in 2022/23, down 70% from last year. Supplies from Brazil are increasing, whose production is 23 USD/ton cheaper than the American one. Increased purchases of corn from Brazil will reduce demand for barley from Canada, i.e. its price will drop.
